EMEA Major Report: Continental Drift - The Wider Economic and Property Market Implications of the UK Referendum on EU Membership, September 2016
This ViewPoint looks at what might happen now that the UK has voted to leave the EU. It discusses the likely timetable for Brexit, the possible impact on the UK economy and what alternative trade structures might be available for the UK to join.
This report goes into further detail on which UK industry sectors might be affected and which European cities might benefit from Brexit relocation. It concludes by looking at what the wider impact on the rest of the EU might be — negative as well as positive.
The referendum has happened and there has been a vote to leave the EU. But there is considerable uncertainty over how long the process will take and over what the eventual relationship between the UK and EU will be.
We believe that leaving will neither be quick nor dramatic in its effects. Rather, we expect a ‘long goodbye’ stretched out over two years or more. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty provides for a two-year exit period once a member state decides to leave, but the UK looks unlikely to serve a formal decision any time soon.
We think the Article 50 notice is not likely to be served until late 2017 at the earliest.