New Zealand Major Report: Current property market peak timing estimation | November 2016
This report provides estimation of the current market peak timing, together with vacancy and absorption projections through an innovative and unique approach.
During the initial phases of property market cycles the demand for space grows. This in turn results in new construction being undertaken and subsequent stock increases. The model presented in the paper allows for estimation of the cycle generated demand and comparison with the known and expected space supply.
Subsequently, the vacancy resultant from oversupply of space is assessed at the closing stages of a cycle. Finally, the techniques developed in the paper allow for estimation of market peak timing.
The report discusses office and industrial sectors in detail providing estimations of cyclical market characteristics for each of these in turn.