Article
CBRE Outlook: Canadian Commercial Real Estate Investment Could Rise to $56B in 2026
February 4, 2026 4 Minute Read
Unlike the housing market, where sales activity has plummeted, commercial real estate is attracting renewed interest from international and domestic sources of capital.
Investment in Canadian commercial real estate is expected to rebound in 2026, with CBRE’s Canada Real Estate Market Outlook forecasting the volume of property sales to rise by over 8%.
When coupled with merger and acquisition activity and portfolio deals, total investment volume could hit ~$56 billion. That would be up from an estimated $47 billion in 2025 and rank as the third highest total in Canadian commercial real estate sales history.
“We’re coming off a year of uncertainty, but international capital has already voted in favour of Canadian commercial real estate,” says CBRE Canada President and CEO Jon Ramscar. “We have seen assets purchased across the country due to our strong fundamentals and relative stability.
“In 2026 we expect widespread and competitive participation from all sources of capital, domestic and international. Not to mention that the resurgent office market will spur transactions and our retail market remains solid.”
Here's how CBRE’s Canada Real Estate Market Outlook sees the investment picture shaping up for the four major commercial real estate asset types:
Office Sentiment Improves
Following two years of positive net absorption and national vacancy having peaked, the office market has stabilized and is transitioning to a period of sustained growth. Investor sentiment around office has improved substantially as a result, bolstered by return-to-office mandates for public and private sector workers.
A receptive debt market has embraced the asset class, albeit mostly for high quality Class A product. Office investment volumes are set to rebound back to levels more consistent with its historical share of total activity.
Seniors Housing a Bright Spot Within Multifamily
Seniors housing is set to benefit from strong market fundamentals over the next few years. A rapidly aging Canadian population is driving exceptional tailwinds in the asset class. Demand will surge and continue to support double-digit rent growth that outpaces expense growth.
Despite growing demand, new supply of seniors housing is expected to remain limited given the significant gap between current market rents and the rents needed to make new construction of projects financially viable. In 2026 and beyond, competition for seniors housing assets is expected to intensify as more investors seek to enter this compelling asset class.
Industrial Nears Inflection Point
Industrial market fundamentals are largely balanced and moving toward an inflection point in 2026. With demand expected to build, net absorption of industrial space is forecast to rebound further to over 20 million sq. ft. in 2026, recovering to levels back in line with national pre-pandemic norms.
Trade remains an overarching concern for the Canadian industrial market as a review of the Canadian-United States-Mexico Agreement is scheduled for July. The resilience of the Canadian economy in the face of U.S. tariffs so far has been mainly due to CUSMA; its preservation is critical to stabilizing the industrial market.
Retail Achieves Stability
Retailers are on a more stable footing at the outset of 2026 compared to this time last year. Overall performance will be highly localized and vary geographically. Secondary or tertiary cities are trending positively and seeing the greatest runway for growth.
Many major brands are following demographic shifts and infrastructure investments, expanding into new or previously untapped markets across the country.
Download the CBRE Canada Real Estate Market Outlook
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