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Capital, Consolidation & Confidence: Multifamily Themes Emerging from NMHC

Capital Markets Conversations

February 12, 2026 5 Minute Watch

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CBRE Vice Chairmen Danny Baker and Kris Lowe join Capital Markets Conversations to share their thoughts about multifamily investor sentiment following the NMHC. They foresee strengthening transaction momentum driven by capital deployment needs, steady liquidity from banks and GSEs and selective distress in loans originated in 2021 and 2022. Baker and Lowe expect increased consolidation activity and underscore the continued importance of disciplined underwriting.

Summary

  • Capital Deployment & 2026 Outlook 
    Investors enter 2026 with significant capital to place, alongside dispositions pushed into 2026 from last year. With fund maturities approaching, motivation to transact is building. Improved fundamentals—especially in the Sun Belt—may help bring more clarity to pricing and support increased activity. 
  • Debt Maturities & Distress Expectations 
    Most 2021–2022 multifamily loan maturities are being extended, refinanced, or recapitalized. Distress is largely concentrated among specific sponsors, asset types, and markets, reflecting a repricing and deleveraging cycle. 
  • Focus on Scale and Efficiency  
    Investors increasingly view consolidation as a meaningful opportunity. Capital is focused on platform acquisitions, portfolio recapitalizations, and peer‑to‑peer M&A. This shift reflects a growing focus on scale and operational efficiencies across the sector. 
  • Debt Market Risks in 2026 
    Investors are primarily focused on rate volatility, fundamentals and underwriting. Stable participation from banks and GSEs should support transactions. Even so, changes in the 10‑year Treasury yield may influence deal timing and momentum.  

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