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CBRE Cap Rate Survey Suggests That the Market is Finding a Floor

Chart of the Week

March 11, 2024 2 Minute Read

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Our twice-a-year Cap Rate Survey asks industry participants to estimate the direction and magnitude of cap rate movement for the coming six months. The H2 2023 survey is hot off the presses and Figure 1 shows the percentage of respondents who expect cap rates (yields) to increase for each major property type.

As you can plainly see, far fewer industry participants think cap rates will increase today than did so six months ago. In fact, “no change” was the most common answer across all property types in our most recent survey. Unsurprisingly, given the continued weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, industry participants are most pessimistic about the office sector.

The survey results are consistent with CBRE EA's latest investment forecast, which expects cap rates to peak early this year.

Figure 1: Percent of Cap Rate Survey Respondents Who Expect Cap Rates to Increase During the Next Six Months

Chart of the Week

Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

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