Despite softening fundamentals, industrial markets will be OK
Chart of the Week
September 29, 2023
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Industrial availability rates are generally below historic norms nationwide, but fundamentals are expected to remain soft through mid-2024. Markets with heavy supply growth, such as Phoenix and Charleston, SC, are expected to see a particularly sharp rise in empty industrial space particularly as new development pushes the availability rate above pre-pandemic trendlines in Fort Worth, Stockton, CA, and a few other markets. This new product is coming online as leasing cools from the feverish pace of the COVID era. The good news is that most major industrial markets remain tight compared with the pre-pandemic period, enabling continued modest NOI growth.
Figure 1: Industrial Availability Rates, Present and Forecast, Relative to Historic Mean
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.