Intelligent Investment
Divergence in Absorption Trends Likely to Persist
Chart of the Week
October 30, 2024 2 Minute Read
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Prior to 2020, net absorption generally moved in a similar direction across property types. The pandemic upended this pattern, with notably dire effects on office absorption.
Looking ahead, we anticipate a continued divergence in absorption trends. Of all the sectors, industrial and retail should resume a normalized pattern that resembles the previous upcycle. However, retail absorption should moderate because available space is so limited.
Multifamily is poised for the best absorption, mainly due to the high barriers to homeownership. However, a commensurate supply response will check rental growth.
The office sector is inching toward stabilization with most markets now reporting positive net absorption. However, the rolling four-quarter trend (depicted in the chart below) remains in the red.
Figure 1: Four-Quarter Sum of Net Absorption / Stock (%)
Contacts
Dennis Schoenmaker, Ph.D.
Global Head of Forecasting and Strategic Insight, Head of Data Centre of Excellence
