Intelligent Investment
Cap Rate Survey – now in its 17th year – suggests new market cycle on the horizon
EA Chart of the Month: Michael Leahy, Matt Mowell and Dennis Schoenmaker, Ph.D.
February 23, 2026 2 Minute Read
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CBRE began publishing our biannual Cap Rate Survey 17 years ago in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, when commercial real estate transaction volume was limited. This survey provides insights on asset pricing from our capital market experts, who have exceptional visibility into market-clearing cap rate levels in their markets.
The H2 2025 Cap Rate Survey results suggest we are now moving into a new cycle. Figure 1 shows three lines that represent the 25th and 75th percentiles and median cap rate estimates (combining all sectors and markets) from each survey going back to 2009. The vertical axis represents the estimated cap rate and the horizontal displays the time period.
A key takeaway is the continuing near-record spread between the estimates. The historically high spread is primarily driven by Class B and C offices, where cap rates remain elevated, and reflects real differences in risks and growth prospects across asset classes.
Importantly, the survey shows early signs of cap rates beginning to fall at the upper (75th percentile) range. Also, respondents increasingly believe cap rates will decrease during the next six months. Altogether, the survey results suggest commercial real estate investment is primed for a period of positive returns and greater activity.
Figure 1: Distribution of Cap Rate Estimates by CBRE Cap Rate Survey
Contacts
Dennis Schoenmaker, Ph.D.
Global Head of Forecasting and Strategic Insight, Head of Data Centre of Excellence
