You are now on CBRE Global Site
Dismiss
Skip to content
  • Services

    Services

    Unlock the value in every dimension of your real estate with integrated, data-led services that support your overall business strategy.

    See Overview

    Needs

    • Invest, Finance & Value
    • Plan, Lease & Occupy
    • Design & Build
    • Manage Properties & Portfolios
    • Transform Business Outcomes
    View All Services

    Property Types

    • Office
    • Retail
    • Industrial
    • Multifamily
    • Hotels
    See All Property Types

    Industries

    • Data Center
    • Life Sciences
    • Banking & Financial Services
    • Tech, Communications & Entertainment
    • Healthcare
    See All Industries
  • Insights & Research

    Insights & Research

    Our unmatched research and thought leadership platform delivers actionable insights to help our clients make informed business decisions.

    Explore Insights & Research
    Unlocking insights in your data

    Unlocking insights in your data

    Latest Research

    • Market Reports

    Trending Topics

    • Sustainability
    • The Weekly Take
    • Future of Work
    • Data Center

    Featured Insights

    • Intelligent Investment
    • Future Cities
    • Adaptive Spaces
    • Evolving Workforces
    • Creating Resilience
  • Properties

    Properties

    Find the ideal office, industrial or retail property for your team or source specialized spaces for multifamily, healthcare, technology and more. Let us guide you to your next investment of leasing opportunity.

    Overview

    For Lease

    • Properties for Lease
    • Retail Properties for Lease

    For Sale

    • Properties for Sale
    • Retail Properties for Sale
    • Investment Properties for Sale
  • Offices
  • Careers

    Careers

    Find your next opportunity on the world’s leading commercial real estate services and investment team.

    Explore Careers
    Explore how we help businesses and people thrive. Learn more on our careers blog.

    Explore how we help businesses and people thrive. Learn more on our careers blog.

    Working at CBRE

    • Accommodations
    • FAQs
    • Our Benefits
    • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
    • Military
    • Search Jobs

    Our Career Opportunities

    • Sales & Consulting
    • Digital & Technology
    • Facilities Management & Trades
    • Project Management
    • Corporate
    • Investment Management
    • Students & Grads

    Learn More

    • Thrive at CBRE Careers Blog
    • Join our Talent Community
    • Meet Our Leaders
    • Our Culture
    • What We Do
  • About Us

    About Us

    With more than 105,000 professionals (excluding Turner & Townsend employees) in over 100 countries, CBRE is the global leader in commercial real estate services and investment.

    Explore

    • Global Leadership
    • Board of Directors
    • Newsroom
    • Corporate Responsibility
    • Investor Relations
    • Data & Technology
    • Culture & History
    • Supply Chain

Visit Another Country or Region

  • AR Argentina
  • BR Brazil
  • CA Canada
  • CL Chile
  • CO Colombia
  • LZ Latin America
  • MX Mexico
  • US United States
  • VE Venezuela

  • AU Australia
  • HK Hong Kong SAR
  • IN India
  • ID Indonesia
  • JP Japan
  • KR Korea
  • CN Mainland China
  • MY Malaysia
  • NZ New Zealand
  • PH Philippines
  • SG Singapore
  • Taiwan
  • TH Thailand
  • VN Vietnam

  • AT Austria
  • BE Belgium
  • BG Bulgaria
  • CZ Czech Republic
  • DK Denmark
  • FI Finland
  • FR France
  • DE Germany
  • HU Hungary
  • IE Ireland
  • IT Italy
  • LU Luxembourg
  • NL Netherlands
  • NO Norway
  • PL Poland
  • PT Portugal
  • RO Romania
  • RS Serbia
  • SK Slovakia
  • ES Spain
  • SE Sweden
  • CH Switzerland
  • GB United Kingdom

  • BH Bahrain
  • BW Botswana
  • CM Cameroon
  • CI Cote-D’Ivoire
  • EG Egypt
  • GH Ghana
  • IL Israel
  • JO Jordan
  • KE Kenya
  • KW Kuwait
  • ML Mali
  • MA Morocco
  • NA Namibia
  • NG Nigeria
  • OM Oman
  • PK Pakistan
  • RW Rwanda
  • SA Saudi Arabia
  • SN Senegal
  • ZA South Africa
  • TZ Tanzania
  • TR Turkey
  • UG Uganda
  • AE United Arab Emirates
  • ZM Zambia
  • ZW Zimbabwe

U.S. MarketFlash

Still Waiting: Presidential Election Too Close to Call

04 Nov 2020

Executive Summary

  • The presidential election outcome may remain undecided for several days until results are fully in from Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
  • The House will remain in Democratic hands. While several key races remain outstanding, it appears likely that the Republicans will retain their Senate majority.
  • Key issues for real estate from the split outcome include the pace of economic recovery, global trade, taxes, health care and the regulatory environment.
  • Certain local issues affecting commercial real estate also remain undecided. These include Proposition 15 in California. The ballot initiative to increase taxes on commercial properties is failing narrowly as of this writing.
  • The market’s initial reaction to a likely divided government in 2021 has been favorable. As of late morning, the S&P was up 2.8% and the Nasdaq was up 3.8%. The 10-year Treasury also rallied with the yield falling to 0.77% late this morning.
  • Regardless of the election outcome, CBRE expects a sharp slowing of economic growth in Q4 2020 before the rebound regains strength in 2021. Recovery of property market fundamentals will lag the broader economy to varying degrees across property types.

State of the Presidential Election

The U.S. presidential election remains undecided, largely due to the high number of mail-in votes amid the pandemic. Five states will likely decide the winner of the presidency: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These votes likely won’t be fully tabulated for several days. Should the results be contested in court, the official outcome could be delayed further. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of the election is not expected to materially impact near-term macroeconomic conditions.

Issues

The outcome of several pending Senate races will determine the extent to which certain issues impact commercial real estate. Should the Republicans retain the Senate as expected and Biden wins the presidency, policies that the executive branch can put into effect independently, such as global trade and regulation, will take precedence. Fiscal stimulus likely will be more limited ($1 trillion or more) should the Republicans hold onto the Senate, though it could be more if Trump wins reelection. Should Democrats take control of the Senate under either Trump or Biden, a COVID recovery package likely will reach and possibly surpass $2 trillion. A Democratic Senate along with a Biden win could result in major legislative action affecting federal spending, taxes and health care.

What Comes Next

Pennsylvania ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted until Friday. As such, CBRE will be closely monitoring results for impacts on property markets and will weigh in with additional analysis once results are finalized.

Regardless of elections results, CBRE expects economic growth will slow in Q4 2020 before a strong recovery takes hold in 2021 with expected GDP growth of 4.5% for the full year. Recovery of property market fundamentals will be increasingly apparent in the second half of 2021.

 

 

Contacts

  • Richard Barkham

    Global Chief Economist, Head of Global Research & Head of Americas Research

    Photo of Richard Barkham, Ph.D.
    • Phone +1 617 912 5215
    • Email
    View Profile
  • Spencer Levy

    Global Chief Client Officer and Senior Economic Advisor

    Photo of Spencer Levy
    • Phone +1 617 912 5236
    • Email
    View Profile
  • Darin Mellott

    Senior Director, Capital Markets Research

    Photo of Darin Mellott
    • Phone +1 801 869 8014
    • Email
    View Profile
  • About CBRE
  • Careers
  • Corporate Responsibility
  • Investor Relations
  • Newsroom
  • Contact Us
  • Global Privacy and Cookie Notice
  • Terms of Use
  • Our Response to Schrems II
  • California Privacy Notice
  • CBRE Intranet
  • Facebook
  • Linkedin
  • Twitter

Copyright © CBRE. All rights reserved.