U.S. Winter Storm Fern

Key Takeaways

• Storm price premiums faded near-term but stuck in outer years. Calendar 2026 power forwards spiked 18–21% during the storm across PJM, MISO, ISO-NE, NYISO and ERCOT, but largely reverted within days. ERCOT power forwards fell as grid performance confirmed improved winter resilience since Winter Storm Uri in 2021. Cal 2027 and Cal 2028 strips in PJM and the Northeast retained most of their premium, suggesting a structural re-pricing of supply adequacy after Fern.
• Gas infrastructure couldn’t keep pace with demand. Production freezes and pipeline constraints drove regional gas prices as high as $282/MMBtu. Henry Hub March 2026 futures swung from $2.6/MMBtu to $4.4/MMBtu, then dropped 26% in a single day, the largest decline in over 30 years, before rebounding on returning LNG demand.
• Regional grid vulnerabilities diverged. MISO’s wind-dependent supply outlook was exposed when load exceeded forecasts by up to 7.4 GW. PJM operated under sustained emergency conditions with day-ahead prices hitting $2,323/MWh. The Northeast reverted to oil-fired generation as gas constraints drove power prices above $4,000/MWh in NYISO.
• ERCOT stood apart. Unlike Winter Storm Uri in 2021, the thermal fleet held, wind overperformed, and nearly 7 GW of battery storage kept real-time prices below day-ahead expectations. ERCOT is the only region where Fern lowered forward prices, with January 2027 on-peak forwards falling 9% below pre-storm levels.