Melbourne Retail Figures Q3 2025

Key Points:

•  Household spending in Victoria in August 2025 rose by 0.4% m-o-m and 4.3% y-o-y in seasonally adjusted terms, hinting at a robust, though seasonally cautious, consumer spending climate in the state.  
• In August 2025, Victoria’s unemployment rate was stable at 4.4% (+0.2% y-o-y), however remains low by historical standards.
• Retail supply over 2025 and 2026 is projected to reach c. 366,600 sqm across CBD, shopping centre and LFR assets. Supply is anticipated to align with the five-year historical average of c.143,600 sqm p.a.
• In Q3 2025, net face rents for regional, large format retail and neighbourhood centres saw increases of 3.1%, 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively, while other retail assets remained broadly stable during the quarter. 
• Retail investment activity in Melbourne remained subdued in Q3 2025, with total sales reaching $71.4m. The most notable transaction was the sale of Bunnings Thomastown.
• Sub-regional centres experienced the sharpest yield compression, contracting by 23 bp q-o-q.