Memphis Industrial Figures Q1 2026

After a run of negative net absorption through 2024, demand strengthened in 2025, culminating in 4.8 million sq. ft. of space absorbed in Q4 2025—driven largely by solar panel–related transactions—and a further 863,000 sq. ft. in Q1 2026. As a result, vacancy declined to 6.0% inQ1 2026, a 1.5-percentage-point year-over-year. Availability followed a similar pattern, falling from 11.7% in Q1 2025 to 10.0% in Q1 2026. Pricing remained disciplined despite these swings in occupancy. Average asking rents in Q1 2026 were $4.59 per sq. ft., essentially flat year-over-year and up 0.4% quarter-over-quarter.

U.S. economic growth remains resilient despite the cycle’s maturity, with GDP expected to average 2.1%. However, concerns about the durability of this growth, elevated market volatility, and geopolitical risks—particularly Operation Epic Fury and energy prices—are weighing on credit and equity markets. While U.S. growth impacts may remain limited if oil prices stay near $80/bbl and the conflict is contained, inflation is forecast to rise to 3.2%, and further escalation would likely push inflation, long-term yields, and commercial real estate risks higher. For the Memphis industrial market, resilient growth supports logistics and distribution demand, but higher inflation and rates could temper leasing momentum and investment activity by raising occupancy costs and financing hurdles.