2024 China Real Estate Market Outlook

GDP growth is set to normalise in 2024, with CBRE expecting economic expansion to reach 4.6% y-o-y. The further recovery of domestic consumption will be the main driver of economic growth. Fiscal policy this year will be moderately strengthened and improved in terms of quality and efficiency.
 
Office leasing demand is set to experience a moderate recovery in 2024. Abundant new supply will ensure the market continues to favour tenants. Office upgrading is now established as a long-term trend in China’s office market.
 
With the recent wave of new completions now passing, supply and demand in the logistics market will return to a more equitable balance in 2024. The rental decline will narrow this year, with some cities set to witness a return to growth.
 
Consumer confidence will further improve. The outdoor sports and F&B categories will continue to drive retail property leasing demand. Rents in most cities are expected to stabilise or achieve modest growth but will stay below pre-pandemic levels.
 
Commercial real estate investment volume is forecasted to enjoy low single-digit growth in 2024 as investor sentiment bottoms out and interest rates remain low. Cap rates are forecasted to expand slightly and approach the top of their range.