2026 China Real Estate Market Outlook

CBRE today publishes the English version of its 2026 China Real Estate Market Outlook – our annual forward-looking analysis of China’s commercial real estate market for the coming year. As well as covering the leasing and investment markets, this year’s report focuses on the growth potential and opportunities expected to emerge in China’s real estate market during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
 

• The CPC Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party has set the tone for the next five years by prioritising "effective qualitative improvement alongside reasonable quantitative growth." This signifies a strategic shift in China's economic trajectory and marks a move away from a focus on "scale-driven growth" toward "high-quality development." This has led CBRE to forecast that China’s GDP growth rate will settle at approximately 4.5% in 2026.

• Abundant supply remains the major headwind affecting China’s office market, although a medium-to-long-term decline in office supply is becoming apparent. The growth of artificial intelligence and related fundraising activity supported by government policy will underpin further expansion by tech and financial sector firms over the course of this year. Office demand will continue to grow steadily, with net absorption expected to increase by 10-15% y-o-y in 2026.

• In the logistics sector, the recent easing of U.S.-China trade tension will somewhat ease uncertainty around export-related logistics demand, mitigating short-term export disruption. However, considering the weakening of demand arising from the “trade-in” initiative and the trend for cross-border e-commerce operators to develop their own facilities, CBRE forecasts that annual net absorption will decline by 20% y-o-y to approximately 8 million sq. m.. New warehouse stock is projected to fall across all regions outside south China.

• The gradual recovery of consumption is expected to persist over the course of 2026, supported by government policy incentives. Emerging consumption themes such as the health economy, beauty economy, and emotional economy have become more prominent in recent years, leading to a rapid increase in the number of enterprises and generating new demand for retail space. The "silver generation" along with the post-00s and post-10s will become the primary sources of incremental consumption this year and beyond.

• Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, a combination of attractive valuations and an improved financing environment will catalyse commercial real estate investment activity this year. CBRE forecasts commercial real estate investment volume to grow by 5-10% y-o-y in 2026.