China's 15th Five-Year Plan​ | Highlights & Implications for Commercial Real Estate

During the recently concluded “Two Sessions”, the concurrent annual meetings of China’s two most important political bodies, the National People's Congress (NPC) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the central government released the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development in the People's Republic of China (PRC) (hereinafter referred to as the 15th Five-Year Plan).
 
The 15th Five-Year Plan will serve as the blueprint for China's economic and social development over the next five years. This report by CBRE – “China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: Highlights & Implications for Commercial Real Estate” – provides insights for occupiers and investors by analysing key policy measures outlined in the Plan and assessing their likely impact across major real estate sectors. Key takeaways include:
 
Office:

• The shift to Artificial intelligence+ will boost short-term office demand.
• Quality upgrading of the finance industry will support office requirements from non-banking financial institutions.
• The period will see sustainable growth in demand for green certified buildings as China’s 2030 carbon peak target approaches.

 
Industrial:

• Solid potential for 3PL outsourcing will generate stronger demand for warehouses in comprehensive distribution hub cities.
• The further development of China’s manufacturing base will drive demand for manufacturing and R&D space.
• Industrial digitalisation and Token globalisation will propel data centres into a new phase of dual growth in quantity and quality.

 
Retail:

• Service consumption is to be the key growth driver of consumption during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
• Demographic changes will drive emerging consumption themes.
• Visa-Free tourism will create new consumption engines.

 
Investment:

• The rebalancing of supply and demand is set to accelerate in the coming years.
• Improvements to the land renewal system will bolster investor confidence.
• Orderly risk resolution outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan will create several cyclical investment opportunities.