H1 2026 Australian Lender Sentiment Survey

CBRE Research’s H1 2026 Lender Sentiment Survey received 44 responses from key commercial real estate lenders across local banks, international banks and non-banks. We find: 

• Cash rate expectations have materially shifted over the last 6-months. Current views among economists and our lenders are divided as to the future path of cash rate movements.
• Appetite for new loans remains positive despite elevated uncertainty, with 45% of lenders wanting to grow commercial real estate exposures and only 5% of surveyed lenders intending to decrease their book.
• Lender investment preference has declined in the Industrial sector to the lowest level on record. Instead, interest in stabilised office investment has increased for the first time in three years.
• Credit margins expectations are divided. Whilst majority of lenders still expect stability, 34% expect credit margins to increase by at least 10bps, up from just 5% in H2 2025.
• Development feasibility constraints remain a key concern for lenders, however, rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty is impacting the current outlook.  
• When considering refinancing, performance-based variables have risen in importance, as elevated uncertainty shifts the focus towards current performance.  
• The combination of elevated interest rates, rising construction cost inflation and uncertainty is set to dampen acquisition and development loan activity over the next 12-months.
• Bank lenders are adopting a more cautious stance towards residential-to-sell construction lending via pre-sale requirements.