Report
Ireland Real Estate Market Outlook 2026
January 20, 2026 12 Minute Read
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Introduction
In the last year, Irish commercial real estate showed continued signs of stabilisation. Further ECB rate cuts brought capital values to the cusp of positive growth, while the office sector – the cornerstone of the market – experienced a revival. However, geopolitical uncertainties, including tariff threats, cast a shadow over parts of the year, influencing market dynamics.
Looking ahead, it appears the geopolitical focus has shifted at least somewhat from tariffs and EU-U.S. trade tensions, albeit risks remain. Ireland has emerged relatively unscathed for now, with key sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology exempt from reciprocal tariffs, and domestic economic expansion continuing rapidly, with +3% MDD growth forecast for 2026.
The potential impact of Artificial Intelligence on jobs growth and the risk of an emerging ‘AI bubble’ is one of the biggest threat to markets this year. However, the extent of AI’s ability to replace workers remains in question, while the biggest technology groups who are said to be in ‘bubble’ territory are fundamentally well-capitalised enough to absorb a shock.
For real estate in Ireland, total returns are now in positive territory and asset value growth will emerge selectively. Monetary conditions are supportive – indeed we have already seen intense competition emerging in real estate debt markets.
ECB rates will remain largely stable this year with an outside chance of a further decline, while the Federal Reserve's anticipated cuts will aid global liquidity, though further dollar devaluation could challenge U.S. investors and the 10-year treasury remains stubbornly high at 4%+.
We see little signs of further distress in 2026 in the Irish market. The ownership and funding profile of the market, now made up of global institutional funds, has offered downside protection during this recent period of volatility. Where distress has occurred it has been worked out proactively with only a handful of heavily discounted sales.
This year we expect pent‑up investment sales to come to market as asset strategy plans that have been deferred over recent years finally have a less volatile market in which to execute. Sales volumes should rise to above €3bn and even potentially trend towards €4bn. The profile of capital seeking to acquire assets has changed however.
Economic Outlook
Ireland has emerged relatively unscathed from the trade uncertainty that dominated much of last year. The headline tariff on EU goods of 15% falls to an effective rate of under 3% for Ireland, as our most prominent exports – pharmaceuticals, computer chips, and aircraft parts – are exempt. So far, this has meant FDI-led demand and IDA job creation have remained remarkably resilient.
Capital Markets
Overall investment spend in Ireland remained flat at €2.5bn in 2025, despite stronger deal momentum and increased investor interest as the year progressed. Activity is expected to accelerate further in 2026, with forecasted sales exceeding €3bn and possibly trending towards €4bn for the year.
Living
The institutional rental sector will be the market to watch in 2026. Policy changes and pent-up activity are expected to drive a significant uptick in transaction volumes over the next 12 months. Full-year investment volumes in the private rental sector (excl. PBSA) for 2025 were €400m, and we anticipate this figure will more than double in 2026.
Development & Planning
Given the level of demand for residential and infrastructure sites and now that commercial markets have now fully reset, we expect land sales to rise in 2026, supported by large-scale deals including the sale of Camden Yard which is progressing.
Office / Occupier
Dublin office take-up outperformed expectations in 2025, totalling 243,000 sq m – marginally ahead of the 10-year average. Return-to-office trends, strong demand for energy-efficient, amenity-rich space, and a resurgence in tech sector activity are collectively shaping the market as it enters 2026 and we are forecasting another year of >200,000 sq m of take-up.
Industrial & Logistics
Tariffs had less impact on Dublin’s industrial and logistics (I&L) market than initially anticipated, as operators largely adjusted the timing of their real estate plans rather than cancelling activity. Take-up reached 221,000 sq m – almost 50% higher than in 2024 – and several large-scale requirements point to an optimistic outlook for 2026, though geopolitical volatility remains a source of uncertainty.
Data Centres
Grid constraints will continue to hamper development and investment in Dublin, though the government’s new LEAP strategy and the CRU’s connections policy aim to reopen connections to the grid. New connections must include on-site generation and battery storage to alleviate the pressure and enhance energy security.
Retail
Dublin’s prime high streets, specifically Grafton Street, now have a scarcity of suitable stock for occupiers seeking flagship stores. While there are pockets of availability, the larger store formats sought-after by modern retailers are largely occupied and this presents a challenge for the market. The vacancy rate on Grafton Street at the end of last year was just 3% (on a per unit basis), and will likely remain stable through 2026, while Grafton Place at 60 Dawson Street is also set to reach full occupancy in the coming months.
Hotels
Both Occupancy and Average Daily Rate (ADR) remain strong across the Dublin market at just under 85% and €173 respectively. The pipeline of new supply being delivered to the market may result in a slight softening of occupancy levels in the coming years, however tourism numbers are forecast to grow.
Healthcare
Sustainability
The 2026 rescaling of the A–G BER system will reset performance expectations and push many existing A/B assets into lower bands, heightening investor and lender scrutiny and accelerating demand for stronger building data and upgrade plans. In parallel MEPS requirements for the worst‑performing non‑residential stock will add further pressure. We anticipate rising interest in LEED O+M, BREEAM In‑Use and real‑time analytics as landlords pivot from design‑led credentials toward operational transparency.
Cork
Residential development continues to dominate activity in Cork. The year ahead will be driven by progress on key schemes such as Horgan’s Quay (LDA), the Railyard Apartments (JCD), Cairn Homes’ CMP site, and Glenveagh’s Marquee project. As in much of the country, demand for cost-rental and build-to-sell housing remains exceptionally strong in Cork where house price inflation, which was recorded at +15%, has outpaced Dublin over the past 12 months.
