Greater Washington REVIVE Index Shows Federal Government Cutbacks Weighing on Region’s Vibrancy

The Greater Washington REVIVE index decreased 1.1% from May to June, reflecting a region that is enduring sharp federal government cutbacks. The REVIVE index is down 5.0% in 2025. This marks the second poorest first-half performance since at least 2009, with H1 2020 showing a more significant decline. However, pockets of vibrancy persist, with strong resident mobility and apartment demand.

Among the trends weighing on the Greater Washington REVIVE Index, the most notable challenges derive from federal government contraction.

• The Federal Government Sub-index dropped by 8.1% in June from the previous month. This monthly decline is the largest for this sub-index in over 10 years, when the effects of sequestration were felt across Greater Washington.
  • Approximately 20,000 federal government jobs in Greater Washington have been officially eliminated this year.
  • Federal government contracts and grants procured within Greater Washington have declined by $1.7 billion (-13% Y-o-Y).
• The labor market is weakening in large part due to federal government contraction. The Labor sub-index of the Greater Washington REVIVE index fell 2.2% in its latest reading, and the region’s unemployment rate rose to a preliminary figure of 4.0% in June, up 3.3% Y-o-Y.
• Commercial real estate indicators continue to struggle, though mostly related to the region’s office market. The REVIVE Commercial Real Estate sub index fell 1.1% in June from the previous month.
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On the positive side, there remain datapoints in seeming defiance to some of the challenges the region is facing.

• The Mobility & Visitation sub-index continued to show robust performance in June, rising 3.9% from May and is 43.4% higher than June 2024.
  • The dramatic improvement in Mobility & Visitation in Greater Washington is demonstrated by a 123% increase in the sub-index over the last 18 months versus a 33% decline over the previous 18 months.
  • Driving the outperformance of the Mobility & Visitation sub-index is significant growth in the movement of residents and visitors around the region as tracked anonymously by cell phone data, generally favorable improvement in hotel occupancy rates, and a 21% year-over-year acceleration in Metro rail ridership.
• Favorable trends in the region’s apartment market helped drive the REVIVE Residential sub-index 1.5% higher in June than May. Demand for the region’s apartment units remains robust and the pace and pricing of apartment building transactions improved in June.

Comparing this Greater Washington performance against our newly developed REVIVE index solely focused on the District of Columbia (Washington, D.C. REVIVE Index) offers two interesting perspectives on current dynamics in the region.

• The Federal Government sub-index of the Washington, D.C. REVIVE Index shows a milder decline over the last month of only 2.9% for the District of Columbia versus the 8.1% decline regionally. The data shows federal government employment and contract cuts hitting Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland more harshly this year.
• The residential sub-index of the Washington, D.C. REVIVE index increased 2.2% last month versus a gain of 1.5% for Greater Washington, suggesting the District’s apartment market is faring relatively more favorably than its regional counterparts.