Fifth Drop in Greater Washington REVIVE Index Underscores Current Challenges

The Greater Washington REVIVE Index fell for the fifth consecutive month, landing at 67.2. Greater Washington’s vibrancy is down 9.4% year-over-year, marking the sharpest annual decrease in at least 18 years outside of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis.

November’s data revealed several factors behind the decline. Most notably, federal government contracts and awards continued to fall, with the 12-month rolling average dropping for the fourth straight month, down 14.7% from the February 2025 peak. This represents the steepest contraction in more than 17 years, surpassing declines seen during the 2013 sequestration. Hotel performance also faced pressure: occupancy through October averaged 67.8%, down from 75% a year earlier — a level only seen in three periods over nearly four decades in Greater Washington.

Both trends were likely amplified by the recent federal government shutdown. However, beyond these, other indicators showed limited disruption. Metro ridership dipped in October but rebounded in November, and broader mobility metrics remained stable. More pronounced effects may emerge in upcoming labor data releases.

Despite headwinds, several positive signals surfaced. Home values posted a surprising rebound, rising for the third consecutive month after five months of declines. Stock prices of the region’s largest companies remain elevated, and regional bank shares have held steady, providing additional stability. Finally, resident and visitor mobility is near its highest level since the pandemic, signaling strong movement across the region.