Greater Washington REVIVE Index declines, but D.C. data shows the city remains relatively insulated amid challenges

The Greater Washington REVIVE index declined 1.1% in September as challenges to the region’s vibrancy intensified. However, D.C. continued to show signs of escaping the brunt of the adversity. On a technical note this month, the federal government shutdown has disrupted the ability to measure recent labor market data, potentially skewing current results of the REVIVE index, which will be updated and calibrated upon the reopening of certain federal government agencies.

The Greater Washington REVIVE index is down 6.5% from one year ago. This is the third sharpest year-over-year decline in the 17-year history of the index — less severe than the record 40.4% drop in 2020 during the pandemic, but steeper than the 6.2% decline in 2023 during higher inflation and interest rates. Before 2020, the steepest decline of the index was 3.8% in 2012, showing how turbulent and challenging the last five years have been for Greater Washington’s vibrancy.

Notably driving the REVIVE index lower in September were declines in federal government contracts and awards procured in the region. REVIVE’s Federal Government and Innovation sub-composite indices were 30% and 20% lower than one year ago, respectively.

The region’s multifamily market showed the first signs of weakening amid the challenging events of 2025. The number of occupied apartment units in Greater Washington declined for the first time since mid-2022, average rents and construction completions edged lower, and investment activity was sluggish. On the other hand, the region’s for-sale single-family housing market remained relatively calm with stabilizing prices and higher sales than one year ago.

Surprisingly, the region’s commercial real estate market trended favorably in the latest data, as the Commercial Real Estate sub-composite reached 15% higher than one year ago. The amount of occupied commercial space, average rents, and construction completions all increased in the quarter ending in September.

Washington, D.C., meanwhile, continued to show itself relatively insulated against the current adversity confronting the region. The Washington, D.C. REVIVE index is down only 2.1% from one year ago versus the steeper 6.5% decline in the Greater Washington REVIVE index.

Particularly notable is the performance of the Washington, D.C. Street Activation sub-composite, which aims to quantify and evaluate how activated the streets and pedestrian areas of the District of Columbia are as a reflection of a robust and vibrant urban ecosystem. In September, this sub-composite index rose to its highest level since pre-pandemic, showing the city continues to be more activated: retail occupancy is higher, Metro ridership continues to improve, and crime is down. Hotel occupancy is challenged in the District, but that appears to be the only laggard as the city headed into the federal government shutdown in October.