Greater Washington REVIVE Index Reflects Regional Headwinds Across Key Sectors

The Greater Washington REVIVE Index dropped 3.6% in July delivering poor, but not unexpected, performance. Despite only being 1.8% below July 2024, performance was unusual in that none of the sub-composite indices that underpin the index increased—a relatively rare occurrence that may reflect the current challenges facing the region.

However, despite the poor performance in July, several important areas of resilience were exhibited that counter a more pessimistic narrative:

• Job openings remained stable or veered higher in Washington, D.C., Virginia, and Maryland.
• Single-family housing construction permits increased for a third consecutive month.
• Commercial real estate trends remain generally unfavorable, but within the region, there was notable resilience in Northern Virginia.
• D.C.’s multifamily market continued to show resilience as the Washington, D.C. REVIVE Residential sub-composite index increased 0.3% last month vs. a 3.8% drop in the Greater Washington REVIVE Residential sub-composite.

Nonetheless, three notable areas of weakness drove the Greater Washington REVIVE Index lower in July:

• Real Estate:
  • Despite evidence of resilience in the Northern Virginia commercial real estate and D.C. multifamily markets, most of Greater Washington’s commercial and multifamily real estate investment indicators stalled in July with Suburban Maryland notably lagging.
  • Average home values declined for a fourth consecutive month—a trend not unique to Greater Washington, but still not ideal.
• Federal Government:
  • The Greater Washington Federal Government sub-composite is down 20.1% compared to one year ago, which is the sharpest annual decline since Sequestration and BRAC affected the region over a decade ago, but still less than the -36.7% annual change in January 2014.
  • Reduced federal government contracts and grants procured within Greater Washington helped drive a 4.5% monthly decline in the Innovation sub-composite as well.
• Mobility & Visitation:
  • After five consecutive increases in Greater Washington’s Mobility & Visitation sub-composite, July posted a 1.9% decline from the previous month.
  • Metro ridership dropped in July and mobility tracking of residents and visitors slowed. Some of this can be attributed to a natural slowdown after a burst of activity in the Spring but may also be evidence of current challenges slowing activity around the region.

Diving more granularly into the region’s dynamics, our recently introduced Washington, D.C. REVIVE index fell by 1.8% in July from the previous month and is 0.8% lower than one year ago.

The less severe declines exhibited in the Washington, D.C. REVIVE index aren’t surprising considering the softer impact on its federal government sector and resilient multifamily market.