Seattle Hotels Forecasted to Exceed Pre-Pandemic RevPAR Levels This Year

CBRE expects Seattle hotels to exceed 2019 revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the second half of 2024, following a weaker-than-expected first quarter.

CBRE’s latest forecast in Seattle projects that RevPAR will achieve a nominal record of $123.10 this year, far above the national average of $101.20, representing 104% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019. This outlook is based on projected average daily rate (ADR) growth of 1.4% and a 1% increase in occupancy.

RevPAR in Seattle is forecasted to increase 2.4% for 2024, down from the 2.9% estimated in February 2024. RevPAR is expected to grow by 3% in the U.S. for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel and limited supply growth.

CBRE forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% and average inflation of 3.2% in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth.

“Seattle hotel occupancy has steadily increased, supported by an uptick tourism and other leisure activities such as sporting events and concerts. While business travel is still muted, the cruise industry has buoyed hotels and tourism in Puget Sound,” said Alan Jutte, Vice President with CBRE’s Hotels Valuation & Advisory group.

Hotel occupancy across the Puget Sound region is expected to reach 70.5% this year, nearly reaching the 74.1% occupancy in 2019. CBRE anticipates hotel occupancy will continue to make steady gains in the region, forecasting to reach 73.8% in 2026.

CBRE expects muted supply growth in the medium term due to elevated financing and construction costs. For 2024, CBRE expects supply growth in Seattle of just under 1%, with hotel supply projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3% over the next three years.

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The May 2024 edition of Hotel Horizons for the U.S. lodging industry, 65 major markets, the six hotel chain scales and six location types can be purchased by visiting: https://pip.cbrehotels.com/hotelhorizons. CBRE’s baseline forecasts do not contemplate an international war or a pervasive recession. CBRE also produces forecasts based on upside and downside scenarios.