Intelligent Investment

Office: Down but Not Out

May 9, 2024 5 Minute Watch

Looking down on a city.

Darin Mellott, Vice President & Head of Capital Markets Research, recently sat down with Matt Carlson and Patrick Gildea, Co-Heads of U.S. Office Capital Markets to discuss investing in office, where there are opportunities for investors and where the property type will be in five years.

Summary

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Patrick Gildea

Vice Chairman and Co-Head of U.S. Office Capital Markets, East Region

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Matt Carlson

Executive Vice President and Co-Head of U.S. Office Capital Markets, West Region

Lic. 01459868
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  • Last Year vs. Today
    The number of deals in the market is roughly at 2023 levels, but signed confidentiality agreements are up 25%, and the bid count has increased from an average of 7 to 11 per deal. Institutions are also cautiously looking at office.
  • Generational Opportunities
    Thanks to favorable pricing in the tier below trophy assets, there is a generational opportunity to invest in office space. Limited new supply and low availability in trophy assets are setting up that tier for stronger fundamentals.
  • Future of Office: Matt
    Over the next few years, we are going to see office shrink across the country through conversions and teardowns. What remains of office will be much more attractive to occupiers and key to fostering company culture. The office of the future is walkable, easy to get to and highly amenitized.
  • Future of Office: Patrick
    Our data shows turnover rates are higher for fully remote companies compared to those in the office, and younger workers’ attitudes toward the office are evolving. As time goes on, the thesis for investing in office again will be clearer and battle tested.

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