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Spencer Levy
They are at the center of our supply chain and have been at the apex of investors attention for several years running. We're talking warehouses and industrial real estate traditionally, the simplest of all real estate products and lately the highest performing asset class around. On this episode, we ask if industrial can continue its hot streak, while facing the challenges of evolving needs and modernization, changes in the economic landscape and the practical realities of growing demand.
Nick Pell
When we talk with our colleagues across the country, when we talk with our customers, customers are still growing their businesses, needing more space in scarcer locations.
Spencer Levy
That's Nick Pell, the president and chief investment officer of Link Logistics, Blackstone's U.S. warehouse platform, which operates about 550 million square feet of industrial assets across America. Link is one of the most active buyers and sellers of industrial products. And according to Nick, the largest developer of industrial real estate in the country.
David Murphy
With all of the rent growth that we're seeing in the market today, we are significantly under supply.
Spencer Levy
And that's David Murphy, a CBRE executive vice president who is celebrating his 25th year with the company. Based in Orlando, David specializes in industrial real estate across central Florida, where, despite the recent impacts of Hurricane Ian, the outlook for the sector remains strong. We delve into that along with the regional advantages of the area and more. Coming up Link Logistics and what we need to know about industrial real estate. I'm Spencer Levy and that's right now on The Weekly Take.
Spencer Levy
Welcome to the Weekly Take. And this week, we are back into the logistics space again, otherwise known as an industrial or, if you’re in Europe, sheds. And a talk about the space we are delighted to be joined by our friend and client, Nick Pell. Nick, thanks for joining the show.
Nick Pell
Thanks, Spencer. Happy to be here.
Spencer Levy
Great to have you. And then our friend and colleague, David Murphy. David, thanks for joining the show.
David Murphy
Thanks, Spencer. Excited to be here.
Spencer Levy
Great to have you. So, David, of course we are now post Ian, the terrible storm that hit so much of the state of Florida, including Orlando. Obviously, it hit the West Coast harder, Fort Myers, but what have been some of the impacts of Hurricane Ian on the industrial market in Florida and certainly our thoughts and prayers are with everybody, first and foremost, but secondarily, tell us about what happened to industrial.
David Murphy
Absolutely, the first step was trying to find industrial space for immediate hurricane relief. So we had worked with the state of Florida finding some staging area. That was a big challenge for us, Spencer, was just finding industrial space and loading areas for the hurricane relief effort because the industrial market is so tight. So that's something that we experienced this go round that we normally haven't had to in the past. Following that, you could really see the need to continue to have, just in case inventory, to be able to supply product quickly to folks that needed it. So that's something that we continue to work with down here and I think you'll hear more about resiliency and the ability to handle supply chain shocks like this in the future. But overall, I feel like the supply chain in general did a pretty good job of getting relief where it was needed quickly.
Spencer Levy
Well, that's great to hear that the industrial community is able to pitch in in the face of a really terrible event in Hurricane Ian. And things seem to be moving forward, notwithstanding the fact that's going to take a while to clean up and many people got terribly affected by the storm. But Nick, let's turn now back to the big picture. And the big picture is really the tale of two worlds. The fundamentals in industrial have never been better in terms of rent growth. In terms of tenant demand. But the capital markets are more than just choppy right now. I'd go so far as to say they are really tough. What's your point of view, Nick?
Nick Pell
I would agree that on the ground, when we talk with our colleagues across the country, when we talk with our customers, customers are still growing, their businesses needing more space in scarcer locations. And the fundamentals, as we see it on the ground and a really broader way across the country are still extremely strong. Now, it manifests itself in rent growth, but also just in terms of how many tenants are out there looking at space. And as you think about what's going on in the capital markets, it's really Federal Reserve driven. They're changing the cost of capital for everyone and they are trying to change behavior of the U.S. economy. And so the capital markets don't thrive on uncertainty and there's a lot of uncertainty out there as to where rates are going to be tomorrow and what the implications are for what the price of risk should be as a result. And so you see dislocation and we've seen it all summer, we've been experiencing it. At the same time we're seeing our buildings be in hot demand from all the different tenants out in the markets. I sort of think about it as the industrial business has fantastic secular trends that are going on behind the scenes. I don't think anything that the Fed does now or over the next 12 to 18 months is going to change those secular trends. There's also record level of occupancy across the country and vacancies at all time lows in some of these markets, less than 1%. And so there's a huge cushion for demand to come down to the extent it does. We're still highly convicted on the assets that we own. And frankly, the opportunity to continue to improve our portfolio and deliver the space that our customers are telling us that they really need right now. So.
David Murphy
Absolutely. Well, e-commerce has materially changed what's happened in central Florida, I don't think up until two or three years ago I'd even be on a podcast right. Orlando, for my first 22 years, was essentially a spoke and a distribution model where the hub was Atlanta. Right. And that worked when you had a two week delivery time. That morphed from two weeks to two days to eventually 2 hours. And being located in the center of the third most populous and rapidly growing state of Florida, we're in the heart of this new supply chain dynamic. And that's really the big difference, Spencer. We're always in a growth market. People continue to move down to Florida. We have 1000 people move to Orlando a week. We have attractions. We have everything that normally drives our market, but the e-commerce and particularly post pandemic, has increased demand for industrial space here in such a large degree and now we're delivering product to Florida from Florida. And as a result, we look at the central Florida market, Spencer, from the Skyway Bridge in Tampa to Daytona Speedway. Right. And that's the entire Interstate four corridor. I challenge you to find a market that has been more dynamic than central Florida over the last three years.
Spencer Levy
Well, speaking of dynamic, I taught a class a few months ago at Florida State University and I drove from Tallahassee down to Orlando. And with the exception of the first 3 hours of the ride where I saw nothing but farms, once you get near Orlando, it is nothing but industrial assets. So my question for you, David, staying with you for a moment, how are the supply demand dynamics on the scene? There was a lot of land, but is it more constrained than that?
David Murphy
It really is. Spencer and Nick hit on a good point with all of the rent growth that we're seeing in the market today. We are significantly undersupplied. There is a lot of land in the state of Florida, but when you look at what is zoned properly, that has access to transportation corridors, what has the infrastructure in place to support industrial? There's not a lot of industrial land left Spencer. We've gone from a pricing standpoint over the last 24 months, three x what the prices were in just a relatively short time. And so you have this price appreciation on land. Buildings have grown in value tremendously as a result. And as Nick mentioned, just the rent growth that accompanies that has been amazing. So the fundamentals in central Florida are really strong. But to get to your question, no, we don't have enough product. Right now, we have about 10 million square feet that is planned or under construction in the greater Orlando marketplace and that product, which again for many years, you never pre-leased a project, right? Like Nick, if we did a deal, with y’all spec building, we would say it's going to take 6 to 8 months after we build the building to lease up. Right. Today we're seeing 30 or 40% pre-leasing on these buildings, which is just a dramatic change in the way we do business.
Nick Pell
The tenants need to be closer to their end customers. Right. So it creates this – that was the big shift is the buildings needed to be closer to where the rooftops are. And the pieces of land near where the rooftops are, harder and harder to find the right pieces of land that can be zoned and then ultimately can be entitled for the construction of a warehouse. Where warehouses tend not to be the most sought after neighbor within communities, which I think gets a bad rap. I think there's a lot of resistance and challenges to getting buildings built. And on top of that, it takes longer than it's ever taken to build a building. It's harder to predict the hard costs and the ultimate cost of your project. And so there's risk to that. All of these factors mean it's more difficult to deliver the high quality supply and the most desirable supply for all these customers. And they kind of all want to be around the same places. And so I think that's the evidence you're seeing is there is a very low vacancy and then any undersupply that David alluded to.
Spencer Levy
So sticking with you, Nick, you mentioned a moment ago that the one of the primary drivers of the difference between where we are today with logistics and where we were a few years ago is proximity. That's one factor. The second factor is the modernization of the warehouse, the shed, the logistics center. Can you tell us a little bit about that?
Nick Pell
It's a really exciting time in the automation lifecycle. I think various manufacturing facilities and distribution warehouses had been automated over the years. In part, I do think the cost of these projects to operate for the customers are warranting you know looking at ways to increase throughput in the buildings. And ultimately it's about throughput and being able to optimize the building that you're operating in using automation. And it's very accretive. It's very accretive to increase throughput given the cost of labor in transportation relative to operating in a larger footprint, further away from the ultimate rooftops that you're servicing. There's a ton of robotic firms and automation teams out there working with the big customers and frankly the mid-sized customers to figure out how to automate and improve the throughput and efficiency of these buildings. But we want to have the best located buildings that have the flexibility to be automated if it meets the needs of the customers then helping them figure out what is that, how do they finance it, what are the economics ultimately to them? And so as part of that, you know, some of the building specs, whether it's power, clear height and obviously we've all been dealing with different parking ratios that have changed over time and being able to put them around labor. And I think there's a misnomer that in these automated warehouses. it's taken all these jobs away from workers because in fact, I think there are still a ton of jobs and all these automated warehouses, just the jobs are a little different than they were in a less automated facility. So I think it's really exciting. It's a natural evolution of some of these expensive infill projects that probably warrant heavy automation. And I think the industry is just now aggressively starting to roll it out.
Spencer Levy
So just because every time we get a new term on the show, my producers shoot me a note. Throughput is a term we have not used before, but I presume that just means the number of goods in and out the door and input doing that as quickly as possible. Is that a fair definition make?
Nick Pell
That's right. Yeah, exactly.
Spencer Levy
David, Nick mentioned the expensive automation that goes into some of these facilities. So for the benefit of our listeners, why don't you walk through how some of these leases are structured? Are they mostly triple net meaning that the tenant’s responsible for everything inside the four walls. Or is there some sharing or their T.I. allowances just give me a general sense of the structure so our listeners understand how the economics work.
David Murphy
Tenants historically wanted to do short term leases. They wanted to have flexibility and they wanted to be able to move from space to space. Today, these tenants could have more value inside the building than the building itself. These could be conveyor systems, machinery, as Nic mentioned, you have very sophisticated automation systems in these warehouses today. And so tenants are now asking for longer term leases. Which surprisingly and really it's not too surprising the landlords are saying, wait a minute, we're seeing ten, 20% year over year rent growth in some markets. It's even higher than that. And we don't know if we want to commit to a ten year lease with this tenant. So you have some of this back and forth that we work with because we happen to work with tenants and landlords and we for most of our careers, we had tried to get the shortest term lease possible for the tenant that gave them the most flexibility. And today, a lot of these tenants want to lock in for longer terms. And so it's a benefit to the landlord. It's a great time to be somebody in Nic’s space where you have a lot of industrial product that you're leasing out. The demand is there and the tenants want that space and want it for a long time. So it's just another factor that adds to why Spencer you mentioned how the capital markets love industrial. There are so many things that are working in industrials favor right now. And I think the sophistication of the supply chain, we always say the best supply chain wins. And part of that is making sure, as Nic mentioned, throughput, being able to get product from one end of your warehouse and then back out the other side as quickly as possible. That's really important. And the cost associated with that process is only going up.
Spencer Levy
The rent component of industrial is still a relatively small component of the overall cost of logistics. Where the costs are broken down by the cost of labor, the cost of transportation, the cost of energy. And so even being in a premium location, even if you're paying up a bit on rent, will more than pay for itself by savings in some of those other areas. And a fair way to put it, Nick.
Nick Pell
We try and remind them of that every time we're negotiating our rents, but I think it is accurate. And if you ask our customers today what their number one pain point is, it's labor. And it's not only the cost of it, but it's the availability of it. I think labor and transportation in particular, where we're in an inflationary environment, in particular the inflation on those two line items are a lot more impactful for the customers than rent. which typically is more like 4 to 5% of the margin. So again, it's a function of trying to work with customers to figure out how can we help you solve some of your other problems like life, labor and transportation. And the automation, I think is a big a big key on a lot of that and just creating more value out of the same location on the map.
Spencer Levy
The word inflation keeps coming up in this conversation as it should, because it is the key issue we're dealing with in the capital markets today. And David, you mentioned how it's changing the way some tenants are looking at leases. One of the ways is they want maybe longer term leases because of the expensive automated equipment, which is now more expensive because of inflation. But are we also seeing changes in lease structures in terms of having higher annual escalations? So it used to be pretty standard to have a two, maybe 3% escalation in a lease. Now we're hearing four or 5%. What do you see, David?
David Murphy
We're absolutely seeing that. For most of my career, a market annual escalation of your contract rent, which is basically your lease, your lease cost it had been 3% annually. Even when the market didn't grow at 3% a year. Right. So it wasn't that long ago that we would have a tenant do a five or ten year lease and at the end of the lease period, we'd try to negotiate the rate back down because the market hadn't grown that much in five or six years. And the tenant's rent was bumping up at this artificial 3% number. Now the escalations are going from that standard, 3% to 4% to 5%. Will we see higher than 5%? Maybe. Because we're seeing massive rent growth and we don't see that stopping. And I don't personally see in our book of business and what's coming into our network and what we're working on today. Even in this environment, we have more requests for space than we've ever had in my career. And so that tells me that the rents probably are not going down.
Spencer Levy
So Nick back to you. The obvious changes that we were seeing in lease structures, whether they be shorter term, higher bumps, other things that we're doing to adjust for inflation, any other changes you're seeing to lease structures to try to accommodate what is a very choppy capital markets environment?
Nick Pell
I don't think so. We agree like there's been a push for generally shorter leases. I think annual increases that more reflect what the rent growth trend lines have been. And the reason that we have so much mark to market in our portfolio and our peers do as well is because the actual market rent has outpaced the historical annual increases. And so the increases that we're seeing and asking for now in the leases we're doing today are just trying to reflect a reasonable trend line for the future. And obviously it's a negotiation. Those have changed pretty rapidly here, but it's really more about the underlying scarcity of the locations, the land, the buildings themselves that can service the needs of the customers. All being in the same place and more difficult and take longer, etc. manifesting in that market rent growth. And then the leased structures are the byproduct of that tension in the marketplace. And so ultimately we find a reasonable middle ground. We'll see what happens five years from now. If you sign a five year lease or whether the market rent outpaced your four and a half percent escalators. And that seems to be on the coast 4 to 5%. And we've seen 5 to 6% in some markets in certain size categories. And some of the lower growth markets are still everyone's north of 3% at this point.
Spencer Levy
So let's talk megatrends for just a moment here. And I think we all already talked about the megatrend of e-commerce. We talked about the megatrend of being closer to your customer. But what about some of the other megatrends as it relates to globalization and ports? Ports in both ports with boats and inland ports with planes. David, how do those things impact the Orlando market?
David Murphy
So we're seeing a lot of activity coming down our Interstate 95 corridor. So if you look at the state of Florida, you have two major entry points into the state. Interstate 95 on the east, Interstate 75 on the west. And two thirds of the truck traffic that enters the state of Florida has historically come down Interstate 75. And that's going back up to Atlanta and kind of the regional distribution center. But as Savannah has grown dramatically over the last few years, we're seeing more traffic coming down the Interstate 95 corridor. So we have several Florida based ports Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami,. There's there's ports, but the one that really drives us to where we're seeing the most spin off demand is coming down from Savannah. And I think that's a trend that's going to continue and why you're starting to see more industrial developers venture east on Interstate four east of Orlando. That was what we always called the forgotten I-4. That area between Sanford, which is a town north of Orlando to Daytona, had kind of been a no man's land for industrial. And now we're seeing quite a few developers go up there and build products because they're picking up on that transportation coming down the 95 corridor. So that's probably been the biggest impact from us from a port standpoint.
Spencer Levy
Nick, you are national in scope. The biggest mega-trend perhaps in the U.S. is just the movement of people into the southeast, southwest and Texas. What are the other mega trends that trend and what are the other megatrends that you're looking at that, gee, this is what the next 5 to 10 years look like. Not just the next couple of years.
Nick Pell
Demographics are a huge component of how we invest and how we think about allocating capital across the different parts of the country. You mentioned the Sun Belt. What's been fascinating to me is watching a lot of these Sun Belt desert Mountain region, cities evolve over the last five years. And watch real land constraints start to emerge as submarkets mature as the development cycle delivers product. I think we're trying to make sure that we have the best portfolios that we can within each of these markets. We look at every existing building that's in the whole market. We have I think there's like 40 or 50 different attributes and we analyze them and we look at it and we decide, you know, what are the available land sites that are around there and the supply constraints and like where are the rooftops that are going to be most wanting to be? I mean, we get really, really detailed in the data. And one of these trends is that these markets are maturing fast. And the rate of change in the Sunbelt following these demographics has been really fun to watch as an investor. As a native New Englander, it's a little depressing because I've seen not the same level of progress and rate of change in my home area. But it has been fascinating and the level of infrastructure that these states and cities are committed to and putting in place. Southern California, our largest holdings are out there. It's our largest concentration within the portfolio. We're still deeply committed to both ports out there and the flow of goods through those ports. And then ultimately through Los Angeles, Orange County, to service largely the L.A. region, but then also out into the Inland Empire. Obviously, there's been labor relations issues every few years in the ports. And I think Savannah has benefited from it. Savannah is on fire right now. It's incredible. There's a ton of development there. I think it's something like 30% of the stock is under construction right now or planned for construction. So that's a huge number. And the big story right now is the demand is kept up and you've seen the product get absorbed. That's what we're all watching, can that demand sustain to keep up with the supply be delivered?
David Murphy
And there are areas that are emerging in our state that we wouldn't have thought would be a market even a few years ago. Example would be in the northwest part of Orlando in an area called Apopka. Which is a market that would not have been on anyone's radar screen up until a few years ago. And what's driving that, Spencer, has been the transportation corridor. So one of the benefits of being in a rapidly growing state is your road system is continually evolving to meet the demand. And so there is a Western Beltway that will finally connect on the northern side of Interstate four in the next few months. And we'll provide a true western beltway around the central business district, and there is a lot of growth out on the western side. Spencer, to get to your point, there's also land available out there. So developers have pounced on it and are already doing really large leases out there. So as you continue to grow and your infrastructure keeps up and I think that's where Florida does really well and it's probably not talked about enough is our road network. Even though everyone that is listening today has ever driven on Interstate four, probably has one complaint or two about it. But in general, our road systems are relatively robust and keeping up with the amount of growth that we have here and are constantly evolving. And as those transportation corridors evolve, it opens up new pockets for industrial development. In that northwest part of Orlando is just one example.
Nick Pell
The infrastructure investing that's been going on in these areas. we're talking about reshoring and jobs coming back to manufacturing, jobs coming back to the U.S. If you look at where they're coming in the U.S., the ones that have already been announced, some of them are actually already under construction, whether it's a semiconductor plant, battery plant, some of the auto stuff like it's in the southeast and it's in the Midwest. Right. Or all the way out in the Phoenix market has been the beneficiary as well. These are the markets that are competing for these massive tens of billions of dollars of investments in some of these facilities that are going to drive I think the recent announcement outside of Austin, it's I mean, it's well outside Austin, but it's going to be like 50,000 jobs or something. So that's just more humans that need stuff. That's more local GDP for these fast growing cities. And I think, you know, Austin and Orlando are right up there in the fastest growing larger cities in the country. So it's really exciting as an investor. Good things happen in places that are growing and have momentum, right? It's a lot easier to not make the perfect bet and still have the building workout. Stay leased stay relevant in the market when the city is growing in every direction. And positive momentum is happening on the ground. So we really like that stuff. It makes our jobs easier.
Spencer Levy
Let's talk now about some of the other megatrend changes here and some of the other megatrend changes are ESG related. If I were having this podcast four years ago, I said, well, you know, if you're in the office sector, ESG matters a lot. In the other sectors, not so much. I think that world is shifting and shifting rapidly. What are you seeing David?
David Murphy
I totally agree Spencer that's a great point. ESG has become a major component in the decision tree for tenants. The challenge that we have as tenant rep brokers and frankly the occupiers in the space and have is that you typically don't have the luxury of being able to find a great fit that has an environmental component that you like or a sustainability component that you like. Because when you go to a market, you may only have one or two spaces to choose from. And if you don't jump on that space right away, there's three other tenants that want it. And so I think today the landlords are looking at and building out product that has a sustainability component. And I think that they're doing that one just to be a good corporate citizen, but two, because they know that the tenants eventually will flock to everything from charging stations to just different sustainability, recycling, other components. The building structures themselves the way a building will deflect heat in the summertime to be able to reduce air conditioning. And just there's so many different solar panels on roofs and there's a lot of thought that goes into that. But the reality on the ground is that our tenants are just saying, I'm in space. It's hard enough today just to find a 50 to 150000 square foot space anywhere in Orlando. And. whereas, when we used to take tenants out, we would show them 5 to 10 properties that could potentially work today. We're lucky if we have two or three to show them. So it's a really competitive, dynamic market today and the tenants, frankly, don't have a lot to choose from.
Nick Pell
We're committed to it. Blackstone is organizationally, and then that certainly filters down to us, I think operating 580 million feet and I think it's like 3800 buildings now, and an opportunity at scale to actually make a real difference is pretty powerful. And I think Blackstone operates at scale in most businesses, if not all businesses it operates. And so you really have an opportunity to move the needle and it's pretty exciting. I think as we think about a very aggressive solar rollout LED rollout across the country. Really trying to get in and operate these buildings more efficiently with the customers> Getting in to understand their energy usage, which is part lowering energy consumption. And then ultimately figuring out how we can guide our customers in some of this stuff. So that David's point, like they may just need the space and so they just take a building. So it's not a requirement for them. But if they're in there and they see us doing these things at the facility and making it like a more sustainable environment. Our experience is they really like that. It's a positive. Maybe it saves them some money. Hopefully it does. And maybe it makes them a little stickier and want to stay as part of our ecosystem. Whether it's in that space or another space we have in that market or across the country and feel like we're being good corporate stewards and citizens of this country and making a difference. And so we're committed to that stuff, obviously the internal stuff and staying engaged with our communities, doing the right things by our people. That all comes, I think, a little bit more naturally and organic to us. I mean, we really do try and have the highest standards internally with our folks. And we are a part of these communities. I think the state is we have about 5% of US GDP now running through our buildings. So this is a proxy for the regional economy through our buildings in a lot of these markets, in most of these markets which we operate. And so we do feel a responsibility as part of that to make sure that we're doing constructive things in the community and giving back in a meaningful way and trying to help the regions grow.
Spencer Levy
David, I said at the outset of the show that Industrial is getting a lot of love from the capital markets, but there's no places that get much more love than industrial in Florida. So that's a pretty easy set up for you. But given what we just went through with Ian, given what we just went through with the pandemic, not quite over yet, but certainly light at the end of the tunnel. Is there anything else on the horizon that would give you any concerns at all about the future of Florida or otherwise for industrial.
David Murphy
We're in a great position in the state of Florida. I would have thought that COVID would have knocked our industrial sector apart because of the shutdown in the attractions and related industries. And we were able to overcome that very quickly. It's extremely unfortunate what happened with Hurricane Ian, but unfortunately that's a cost of doing business in the state of Florida and we're a very resilient lot down here And we will overcome that as well. And that will not stop the people coming down to Florida in droves. And so we see a really strong fundamental picture for the state of Florida moving forward on the industrial sector.
Spencer Levy
Well, that's terrific, David. And I would say that all the macro data supports exactly what you're saying in terms of population flows in Orlando and other parts of Florida as well. Nick, same question to you look, I couldn't be more positive on industrial than any other asset type, but what do you see as the next couple of years? Anything that would give you pause in the next couple of years of industrial?
Nick Pell
Yeah. Look, it's hard to read the newspaper over the last six months and not not have caution. We look at longer term trend lines. I think none of the things that we covered today are going to change depending on what capital markets do over the next 12 to 18 months. I think there's going to be some great opportunities to continue to grow the business here as dislocation may or may continue in the capital markets. I think it's a really exciting time for the business. It continues to evolve. Technology's playing a bigger and bigger part of these facilities, as we also covered, which I think is exciting, modernizing the spaces. We're excited to continue to grow the business, and we really appreciate you, including us here.
Spencer Levy
Well, Nick, great job today. David, great job. So on behalf of The Weekly Take, I first want to thank our friend and client Nick Pell, president and CEO of Link Logistics. Nick, thanks for joining the show.
Nick Pell
Thanks, Spencer.
Spencer Levy
And then I want to thank our friend and colleague, David Murphy, executive vice president, CBRE, based in Orlando, focusing on logistics leasing. David, great job.
David Murphy
Thanks, Spencer. Thanks for having me.
Spencer Levy
For more on Industrial and our show, please visit our website. CBRE.com/TheWeeklyTake. From this sector wide outlook on industrial will go into some really interesting stories and perspectives in the weeks to come, including to look at the flow of global capital into U.S. real estate and more. So stay tuned. Meanwhile, don't forget to share the show and to subscribe, rate and review us wherever you listen. Thanks for joining us. I'm Spencer Levy. Be smart. Be safe. And a special be well to our friends in Florida suffering from the lingering impacts of Hurricane Ian.
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