Raleigh 2026 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review

Executive Summary

As we move through the second half of 2026, the Raleigh commercial real estate market continues to evolve in response to shifting economic conditions, technological innovation, and changing tenant preferences.

Office 

New-to-market tenant activity in Raleigh office remains limited, with most demand tied to renewals, relocations, and space optimization among existing tenants. Mid-sized professional services, finance, law, and technology firms are the primary drivers of leasing activity, with the average deal size running approximately 7,500 sq. ft. in 2026. Larger corporate transactions have advanced incrementally through H1 and are expected to gain momentum in H2. Economic development pipelines remain healthy but below historic norms for new-to-market office users, keeping near-term absorption reliant on organic growth from the existing tenant base. Year-to-date, 77% of leasing by square footage has been in Class A buildings, underscoring the sustained preference for quality product across tenant categories.

Industrial

Raleigh is seeing a notable shift toward larger transaction sizes: average deal sizes have increased from approximately 50,000 sq. ft. over the prior six quarters to approximately 91,000 sq. ft. so far in 2026. Demand for space exceeding 100,000 sq. ft. is robust, driven almost exclusively by new construction. Scarcity of large-block Class A space -- particularly for requirements of 400,000 sq. ft. or greater across the region from Mebane to the Carolina coast -- is creating limited options for the largest users. Manufacturing, power and utilities, building materials, and distribution occupiers are leading leasing activity. As large-block options continue to decline, many tenants will be pushed to transact in mid-sized space to meet their expansion needs until new development delivers additional large-block options.