U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2022

We foresee a record year for commercial real estate investment, enabled by high levels of low-cost debt availability and new players drawn to real estate debt’s attractive risk-adjusted returns. Commercial real estate values will rise, particularly for sought-after industrial and multifamily assets. Investors will sharpen their focus on emerging opportunities in the office and retail sectors in search of better returns.

The supply/demand balance in the office sector will remain highly favorable for occupiers, but the pace of recovery will pick up following a sluggish 2021. With hybrid work the new normal, office properties with amenities that enhance employee collaboration, connection and wellness will fare best.

Retail, by contrast, is seeing the effects of a longer-term transition, which has included pricing adjustments, low levels of new construction and beneficial investment in the best experiential and convenience-led centers. Sales-to-square footage ratios are surging and the demographic- and pandemic-induced shift to the suburbs will favor grocery-anchored and neighborhood centers. With strong forward returns now achievable, we anticipate a decade-high level of retail investment volume in 2022.

Industrial & logistics hardly broke step during the pandemic as e-commerce surged. 2022 will see slower demand for physical goods as the service sector reopens and attracts more consumer spending. This will give supply a chance to catch up with demand. Third-party logistics operators are beginning to dominate the sector and are looking to get ever closer to the end consumer.

Multifamily will continue its recovery in 2022, with downtown locations returning to pre-pandemic occupancy levels. Single-family rentals in the suburbs will also fare well as some millennials leave the city to raise families.

A notable trend in the second half of 2022 will be the return of downtowns. As business and tourist travel picks up, we will see a sharp revival in the hotel sector in gateway cities, alongside the already recovering food & beverage sector. This, in turn, will stimulate the return to the office and the fuller recovery of downtown life.

The outlook for real estate in 2022 is positive, with big cities potentially surprising on the upside. Amid this recovery, ESG, demographics, digitization and decarbonization will take on a new importance.

We have produced this report to help you navigate the macro environment we expect in 2022 and look forward to working with you in the new year.

The outlook for real estate in 2022 is positive, with big cities potentially surprising on the upside.

Continue to Chapter 1: The Economy