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Q2 2026 U.S. Capital Markets Report

July 30, 2026 5 Minute Read

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Capital Markets Momentum Continues in Q2 2026

Note: Arrows indicate change since last year.
Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Capital Markets, MSCI Real Assets, Q2 2026.

Investment Volume Continues to Increase

Notes: Arrows indicate year-over-year change. Investment volume includes single-asset, portfolio and entity-level transactions, but excludes development sites. "Other" includes senior housing assets. Buyer type and top market volumes exclude data center investments.
Source: CBRE Research, MSCI Real Assets, Q2 2026.

Year-to-date (YTD) volume climbed by 21% to $250.3 billion. Private investors accounted for the largest share at $70.9 billion, followed by institutional investors at $22.4 billion. Investment activity continued to climb in gateway and Sun Belt markets, led by New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. CBRE expects a 16% increase in investment activity this year.

Inbound YTD Cross-Border Investment Increases

Note: Cross-border investment volume excludes development sites and data center investments.
Source: CBRE Research, MSCI Real Assets, Q2 2026.

Cross-border investment increased by 35% year-over-year in H1 to $14.4 billion, led by the retail, hotel and office sectors.

Lending Momentum Eases from Five-Year High

Note: The Lending Momentum Index has been revamped based on 36-month Z-score standardization and multifactor weighting. The line represents the overall weighted Z-score, with each quarterly point reflecting the end-of-quarter month value. Higher readings signal stronger lending momentum and risk-on sentiment.
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2026.

The CBRE Lending Momentum Index fell to 1.0 at the end of Q2, down from 1.3 a year ago. While overall momentum eased, underlying conditions remained robust. The number and average size of loans increased, while spreads and LTV ratios tightened, signaling that lenders are competing on price rather than leverage.

Alternative Lenders & Banks Lead in Loan Closings

Note: Volume reflects non-agency commercial and multifamily loans closed by CBRE Capital Markets.
Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Capital Markets, Q2 2026.

Alternative lenders (e.g., debt funds and credit companies) captured 38% of non-agency loan closings in Q2, up from 34% a year ago, driven by debt fund volume.

LTV Ratios & Loan Spreads Tighten

Note: Arrows indicate year-over-year change. LTV ratios are for fixed-rate permanent loans only. Spreads are on 5- to 10-year fixed-rate permanent loans closed by CBRE Capital Markets over the matching U.S. Treasury at loan origination.
Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Capital Markets, Q2 2026.

Commercial LTV ratios averaged 59.6% in Q2, down from 60.8% a year ago, while multifamily LTVs eased to 63.3% from 65.8%. Commercial mortgage spreads narrowed by 21 basis points (bps) year-over-year to 204 bps, while multifamily spreads tightened by 15 bps to 162 bps. The trends reflected disciplined leverage and healthy lender competition on pricing.

Underwriting Remains Disciplined

Note: Arrows indicated year-over-year change.
Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Capital Markets, Q2 2026.

Underwriting measures showed mixed movement year-over-year but stayed within a healthy range. The debt service coverage ratio rose to 1.43 from 1.34 and the debt yield improved to 10.2% from 9.7%. Mortgage interest rates edged down to 5.7% from 5.9%, while cap rates ticked up to 6.3% from 6.0%.

 

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